What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy David Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale
- Publication date:
- 24 May 2011
- Yale University Press
- 368 pages: 235 x 156 x 19mm
- 28 b-w illus.
The world spins in economic turmoil, and who can tell what will happen next? Cold numbers and simple statistical projections don't take into account social, financial, or political factors that can dramatically alter the economic course of a nation or a region. In this unique book, more than twenty leading economists and experts render thorough, rigorously researched prognoses for the world's major economies over the next five years. Factoring in such varied issues as the price of oil, the strength of the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, tax policies, and new developments in investment decision-making, the contributors ground their predictions in the realities of current events, political conditions, and the health of financial institutions in each national economy.
This most comprehensive volume on the global economy available today, this book presents up-to-date research on Russia, Australia, Europe, sub-Saharan and South Africa, the major Asian economies, North America, and the largest economies of Latin America. With unsurpassed expertise, the authors explain what's going on in individual countries, how important current global issues will impact them, and what economic scenarios they most likely will face in upcoming years.
Full table of contentsPreface: Lyric Hughes Hale
Introduction: David Hale
I. WESTERN HEMISPHERE ECONOMIES
1 The US Recovery: David Hale
2 The Canadian Economy: Prospects and Challenges: Joshua Mendelsohn
3 Mexico's Interminable Transition: 2001 and and Beyond: Timothy Heyman
4 Is Latin America Changing? Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
5 The World Bets on Europe, but the United States Will Probably Win: Anatole Kaletsky
6 Asia's Paradigm Shift: Louis-Vincent Gave
7 Japan: Return to Normal: Robert Madsen
8 Japan: The Interregnum Goes On: Richard B. Katz
IV. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ECONOMIES
9 Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010-2011: Keith Jefferis
10 South Africa After 2010: Iraj Abedian
11 It Didn' t Have to Be That Bad: The Counterexample of Australia: Saul Eslake
V. RESERVE CURRENCIES
12 The Future of the US Dollar as a Reserve Currency: John Greenwood
13 Will the Gold Rally Continue? David Hale
VI. THE GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY
14 In the Shadow of Peak Oil, Peak Carbon, Iraqi Nationalism, and Paper Barrels: The Oil Markets of the 2010s: Albert Bressand
15 In the Aftermath of Iran's Latest Revolution: Narimon Safavi
16 Climate Change: Feasible Policy and Future Carbon Markets: Brian Fisher and Anna Matysek
VII. CRISIS AND REFORM
17 Were Banks Bust in 2009? And Did They Really Need Much More Capital? Tim Congdon
18 The Tobin Tax: Creating a Global Fiscal System to Fund Global Public Goods: Andrew Sheng
19 Fiscal Imbalances, Economic Growth, and Tax Policy: Plucking More Feathers from the Golden Goose: Jack Mintz
20 Dodd-Frank Financial Reforms Have a Broad Scope, and Will Likely Have a Modest Impact: Michael T. Lewis
21 The Future of Corporate Compliance: Carole Basri
22 The Human Side of Investment Decision-Making: Thierry Malleret
23 The Diminishing Returns of the Information Age: Mark Roeder
David Hale is a Chicago-based global economist whose clients include asset management companies in North America, Europe, Asia and Africa. He is the founding chairman of David Hale Global Economics and he serves as the Global Economic Advisor to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Mr. Hale holds a BS degree in international economic affairs from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and an MS degree in economics from the London School of Economics. In September 1990, the New York chapter of the National Association of Business Economists conferred upon Mr. Hale the William F. Butler Award.
Lyric Hughes Hale is a writer and contributor to a range of publications, including the Financial Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Current History and Institutional Investor. 'China Takes Off', published in Foreign Affairs in 2003 and written jointly with her husband David Hale, is one of the most oft-cited surveys of China's economic ascendency. Ms. Hale studied Japanese at Northwestern University and graduated from the University of Chicago with a degree in Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations. She has lived and studied in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. As a lifelong Asianist, her scholarly interests include Chinese monetary policy during the 1930s, Iranian affairs and the role of the media in developing countries, especially China. Ms. Hale is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue and is a long-time director of the Japan America Society of Chicago. She founded Women in International Trade (WIT), and was the first female president in the sixty-year history of the International Trade Club of Chicago.
Contributors to What's Next? include Times columnist Anatole Kaletsky, former Peruvian Prime Minister and Latin American economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Timothy Congdon, one of the world's leading monetary analysts.
Related linksLyric Hale has written a number of article for Yale's London blog, discussing her opinions on current eonomic events, and the opinions of the contributors to What's Next? Visit the Yale blog to see a full list of these articles.
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Matthew P. Drennan
Robert D. Atkinson
William J. Baumol
James Gustave Speth
James Gustave Speth
Carl J. Schramm
Joseph J. Tobin
- Alan M. Klein
James C. Scott