The Theory That Would Not Die

“If you’re not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be.”—John Allen Paulos, New York Times Book Review

“A masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment. . . . Renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences.”—Michael Washburn, Boston Globe

“Superb.”—Andrew Hacker, New York Review of Books

“Engrossing. . . . A compelling and entertaining fusion of history, theory and biography.”—Ian Critchley, Sunday Times

“Engaging. . . . Readers will be amazed at the impact that Bayes’ rule has had in diverse fields, as well as by its rejection by too many statisticians. . . . I was brought up, statistically speaking, as what is called a frequentist. . . . But reading McGrayne’s book has made me determined to try, once again, to master the intricacies of Bayesian statistics. I am confident that other readers will feel the same.”—The Lancet

“Makes the theory come alive . . . enjoyable . . . densely packed and engaging . . . very accessible. . . . An admirable job of giving a voice to the scores of famous and non-famous people and data who contributed, for good or for worse.”—Significance Magazine

“A very compelling documented account . . . very interesting reading.”—José Bernardo, Valencia List Blog

“McGrayne explains [it] beautifully. . . . Top holiday reading.”—The Australian

“The Theory That Would Not Die is a rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool.”—Andrew Robinson, Nature

“The Theory That Would Not Die is the first popular science book to document the rocky story of Bayes’s rule. At times, her tale has everything you would expect of a modern-day thriller. . . . To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy.”—David Robson, New Scientist

“McGrayne holds the hand of the general reader as she lays out the history of the theorem and how it is now used in just about every walk of life. . . . Science writing at its absolute peak.”—The Bookseller

“Scientists and statisticians have fought over a deep philosophical divide about probability, which Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores with great clarity and wit.”—Christine Evans-Pughe, Engineering and Technology Magazine

“We now know how to think rationally about our uncertain world. This book describes in vivid prose, accessible to the lay person, the development of Bayes’ rule over more than two hundred years from an idea to its widespread acceptance in practice.”—Dennis Lindley, University College London

“A book simply highlighting the astonishing 200 year controversy over Bayesian analysis would have been highly welcome. This book does so much more, however, uncovering the almost secret role of Bayesian analysis in a stunning series of the most important developments of the twentieth century. What a revelation and what a delightful read!”—James Berger, Arts & Sciences Professor of Statistics, Duke University, and member, National Academy of Sciences

“Well known in statistical circles, Bayes’s Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work.”—Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability from Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes

“Fascinating. . . . I truly admire [McGrayne’s] style of writing, and . . . ability to turn complex mathematical ideas into intriguing stories, centered around real people.”—Judea Pearl, winner of the 2012 Turing Award

“Compelling, fast-paced reading full of lively characters and anecdotes. . . . A great story.”—Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University