Stumbling Giant The Threats to China's Future Timothy Beardson

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Format:: Paperback
Publication date:: 15 Jun 2014
ISBN:: 9780300205329
Imprint:: Yale University Press
Dimensions:: 528 pages: 235 x 156mm

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Can anything prevent China surpassing the United States and becoming the world’s superpower?

While dozens of recent books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China’s rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the policy responses. Threats to China come on many fronts, Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems will thwart any ambition to become the world’s “Number One power.”

Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out China’s situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labor force, relentless aging, extreme gender disparity, and even a falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at the borders. Beardson’s nuanced, first-hand look at China acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.

Timothy Beardson founded and ran Crosby Financial Holdings, at the time the largest independent investment bank in the Far East. He is a permanent resident of Hong Kong.

"Timothy Beardson is a brilliant entrepreneur and investment strategist and his observations about China are sobering?and a must-read for the well-informed."?Steve Forbes

‘A subtle, searching look at China which replaces the hoopla with a sober. trenchant and long overdue analysis of the Middle Kingdom's myriad political and economic problems. Timothy Beardson is a seasoned observer, who knows how to unearth the long-term trends behind the breathless headlines.’ – Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of Die Zeit

‘Using his intimate knowledge and experience of China, Timothy Beardson details the multiple challenges and structural vulnerabilities facing the country as its leaders seek to entrench the remarkable economic gains of the past thirty years. Stumbling Giant is a provocative and thoughtful book, which puts forward a number of valuable suggestions to manage China’s transition to the rank of the world’s largest middle-income country.’ – Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs)

?A thoughtful reconsideration of China?s actual place in the new world order, based on reality rather than fanciful speculation.? ?Kirkus Reviews

“Timothy Beardson is a brilliant entrepreneur and investment strategist and his observations about China are sobering – and a must-read for the well-informed.”—Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media